Strategy guides
A points game, not real-money betting. Uncle Predictor involves no money, accepts no deposits and awards no cash prizes. Nothing on this page is betting advice.
In a prediction game, the winner usually isn't the person who knows the most about football - it's the one who best understands the scoring system. These guides explain how to turn football opinions into points, and where most players lose points without even noticing.
How to pick an exact score
Half a dozen scorelines cover most matches, so the gap between the most likely and the second most likely is small. Getting the winner right is the decision that matters most; after that, the question that decides half of all exact scores is simply "will the other side score?". Between two scorelines of similar probability, pick the less popular one: you trade popularity for rarity without giving up any real probability. And don't forget draws, which are systematically underrated on people's slips.
Where to spend the Joker
The Joker doubles the points of one match, including the rarity bonus, but it doesn't protect mistakes: doubling zero still gives zero. Choose in three steps: eliminate the matches where you have no conviction about the winner; of those left, keep the one where you're also confident about the number of goals; and break the tie with the scoreline fewest people will write down. Avoid the most emotional match and the overwhelming favourite, where almost everyone will get it right. And spend it, because it doesn't carry over to the next matchday.
Playing the rarity bonus
You earn extra points when you nail an exact score that few dared to pick. The natural reaction is to start writing strange scorelines everywhere, and that's a mistake: the bonus only exists if you get it right, so the player who gambles on everything ends up worse off than the one who never gambles at all. The sweet spot is in the middle, with two or three deliberate deviations per matchday. The most undervalued candidates are draws in matches with a favourite and 0-0 in tight, cagey games.
Mistakes that cost points
Most lost points aren't lost through lack of football knowledge. They're lost by missing deadlines, by putting off the season picks, by wasting the Joker and by writing the same scoreline every time. The most effective trick is to predict the whole matchday as soon as it opens and adjust later: an imperfect prediction that's been submitted is always worth more than a perfect prediction that never got made.
Long league or tournament
In a short tournament, risk is mandatory: playing it safe earns you the same points as everyone else, and the podium is decided by two or three bold calls. In a long competition it's the other way round, and the winner is whoever never misses a matchday. In any format, the calibration rule is counterintuitive: ahead and near the end, play the consensus; behind and near the end, take risks.
Before you start
All the guides assume you already know the scoring system. If you haven't read it yet, start with the rules and scoring - without that, half of the reasoning won't make sense.